Human-in-the-loop security will define 2026: Predictions from Sophos experts

Cybersecurity in 2026 will be shaped by extremes: attackers operating with unprecedented speed and scale, and defenders navigating the widening gap between automation and human judgment. Sophos experts predict a year where the “little things” — basic hygiene, configuration discipline, visibility across platforms — will matter more than ever.

AI will accelerate both offense and defense, reshaping identity attacks, business email compromise (BEC), and large-scale exploitation. At the same time, organizations will confront a quieter but equally significant threat: operational burnout as automation outpaces human capacity.

As defending Microsoft environments because increasingly crucial, and MDR evolves into a business-critical function that also becomes a strategic lever for cyber insurance, the role of human-guided security will define which organizations remain resilient in the face of change.

Read the first of a series sharing what Sophos’ team of global cybersecurity experts predict for the year ahead in cybersecurity.

AI will supercharge threat actor scale and sophistication

“In 2026, attackers will continue to use AI as a force multiplier. AI will make it easier to weaponize known vulnerabilities, orchestrate attack campaigns, lower the barrier for basic hacking, and enable broad, rapid exploitation across the internet.

Payloads will be customized faster than ever, and social engineering will become increasingly tailored, including phishing that reflects open-source knowledge of individuals' targets. Deepfake audio and video will make BEC campaigns more convincing and far more credible, making them easier to succumb to.

AI will shift the balance of power by helping even low-skill threat actors operate with speed and precision once reserved for more experienced threat actors.” - John Peterson, Sophos Chief Development Officer

The hidden cost of speed: Burnout

“In 2026, organizations across virtually every industry may start to feel the downside of pushing AI for short-term wins without matching investments in human oversight and system understanding. As day-to-day work leans more heavily on automated reasoning, error rates can rise, not because people care less, but because constant delegation slowly dulls human judgment and pattern recognition.

Cognitive overload is likely to become a real operational risk: machine-paced outputs will keep arriving faster and in greater abundance than human-paced decisions can be made, creating backlogs of unresolved work. Automation complacency may spread as teams grow comfortable trusting systems they no longer fully understand, widening the gap between perceived and actual risk.

Burnout can increase as AI accelerates the tempo of work beyond what individuals and organizations can sustainably adapt to. And accountability may blur when outcomes are produced by human–machine collaboration, leaving no clear owner when things go sideways. In that environment, speed looks like progress until its hidden cost shows up in reduced stability, weaker resilience, and eroding human capability.” - Tom G orup, Vice President of SOC Operations

The little things will matter — as they always have

“In 2026 we will see a major cyberattack which will cause huge disruption. The root cause will be poor cyber hygiene, and the attack will have been entirely preventable.” - Rafe Pilling, director of threat research, Sophos X-Ops Counter Threat Unit

Human-in-the-loop will define MDR

“MDR services will be forced to prove — not just claim — that humans are still in the loop. As AI-driven detection becomes table stakes, buyers will demand transparency into who is monitoring their environment, who is making decisions, and where human judgment is applied.

MDR services that rely solely on automation will struggle to earn trust, especially during ambiguous, high-impact incidents. The strongest providers will be those that use AI to augment analysts, accelerating investigation, prioritization, and response, rather than replacing them.

MDR will differentiate on accountable outcomes, not autonomous claims.” - Rob Harrison, Senior Vice President of Product Management

MDR proves its worth in the insurance equation

“In 2026, MDR will become a strategic lever for insurability, business continuity, and clear ROI. It will be viewed not only as a security investment but as a quantifiable source of risk reduction in cyber insurance underwriting. Insurers increasingly recognize that organizations with 24/7 detection, threat hunting, and rapid response experience fewer severe losses, and they will reward that maturity with better premiums and broader coverage.

AI-driven MDR capabilities will improve accuracy and outcome reporting, combining automation with human expertise to deliver evidence boards understand and insurers trust. MDR telemetry will provide hard proof of resilience, from full endpoint coverage to rapid containment.

As carriers see the financial and operational impact, MDR will solidify its place as both a defensive safeguard and a business asset.” - Jessica Newman, global general manager of cyber risk partnerships

Securing Microsoft environments becomes mission-critical

“With nearly four million organizations using Microsoft 365, securing Microsoft environments will become a defining line between resilient organizations and those that remain exposed.

As attackers increasingly target Entra ID, Microsoft 365, endpoints, and cloud workloads as a single, interconnected attack surface, point defenses will fail to keep pace. Security teams will be forced to move beyond isolated tools and adopt unified visibility across identity, endpoint, email, and cloud activity.

Organizations that can correlate Microsoft telemetry in real time and respond with speed and context will blunt modern attacks, while those relying on default configurations and fragmented controls will continue to absorb avoidable risk.” - Raja Patel, Chief Product Officer

The message for 2026 is clear: resilience will belong to organizations that pair strong fundamentals with accountable, human-centered security operations.

Those that embrace AI thoughtfully, invest in expert-led MDR, and secure their core platforms holistically will be best positioned to navigate the year ahead — and to withstand the disruptive events that, as our experts warn, may be entirely avoidable.